Yes We Can!

While last night was definitely surprising, the results weren't shocking. The bottom line is that the race was extremely close (a 2% margin with 96% reporting), and we're in this for the long haul. In fact, my brother and I are so fired up about the Barack Obama campaign that we'll soon be moving this blog to a better platform -- Wordpress.

Anyway, we're (and I'm speaking for the Obamaites I communicated with tonight) not discouraged at all. Here's why...

New Hampshire Breakdown:

I really believe that the Obama camp overestimated their bounce from Iowa and played things too conservatively. With negative attacks, with the debate, etc. I really like the "four corners" basketball analogy I heard, I think my brother said it to me. Not taking any credit away from Hillary Clinton, but Obama beat himself just as much as the Clintons came back to win.

How did Hillary make such a dramatic comeback when some polls were predicting a double-digit loss?

First off, I don't believe Obama ever had a double-digit lead in New Hampshire. The over-60 crowd and absentee ballots must not have been equally represented in those surveys. No way a primary swings 15 points in 24-48 hours. Like the singing instructor says in Citizen Kane, "Impossible, impossible!"

Let's also not forget that New Hampshire is one of the whitest states in the country. I think the pundits have failed to analyze this, perhaps because Obama did so well in mostly white Iowa. In fact, New Hampshire is lily white. According to the New Hampshire Fact Book, in 2003 only approximately 10,500 out of 1.25 million residents were Black. That's a staggering statistic, and one that Hillary won't have the luxury of often, especially with stakes like these.

Another point is that New Hampshire isn't exact the youngest state either. Again, according to the N.H. Fact Book, as of 2005 the state only had 224,571 residents between the ages of 18-35. A bump from out-of-state college students isn't likely either, considering the state doesn't even have any real major universities. In Iowa, 22% of all Democratic voters were under 30. In New Hampshire, that number dropped to 17%. Given Obama's dominance within that age bracket, that alone could have been the difference last night.

But there was more working against Obama. John McCain's big night certainly hurt Obama's numbers. I happen to think that they were quite a few Independent voters who liked both McCain and Obama, but chose to spend their vote on McCain. Why? Because Obama was rolling, and McCain desperately needed this win to stay alive. Obama won the Independent vote of the Democratic side, but needed more votes then he got from that group.

The weather being nice couldn't have helped either. From my experience, college students will drive in absolutely anything (sometimes even while intoxicated), while senior citizens typically don't even step outside when the weather is shitty. The weather might not have hurt Obama, but it definitely didn't help him. Weather may have actually played a part in Iowa, believe it or not.

Then there's the women vote. Obama won among Iowa women voters over Clinton, 35% to 30%. Heading into the New Hampshire primary, the polls showed Obama with about a 3% lead over Clinton when it came to women. CNN exit polls showed that Hillary won the women category by 13%.

Two things happened here: A.) Hillary turned on the tears and convinced some women fencesitters that she was indeed real; B.) I don't think women really wanted to end the first real woman Presidential candidate's run this early. I think they're consciences got to them inside the booth. I'm hoping that's the case with Hispanic voters in Nevada and Black voters in South Carolina, but in Obama's favor of course. And I truly believe that will be the case, especially in South Carolina.

The last thing is the Bill factor. The Clintons had a 16-year head start in New Hampshire, and are still beloved there. When I saw that the biggest issue was the economy, I recognized that many of these voters were voting nostalgic -- for Bill. That hypothesis is backed up by the fact that the CNN exit poll showed that more Hllary voters would have voted for Bill than Hillary if both were running.

The Positives:

First off, once again Obama did fantastic in the college areas, winning convincingly. This is a good omen heading into states with larger college populations, especially now that school has resumed everywhere and the students are all back in the swing of things. Here are those stats, courtesy of MSNBC:


Durham is where the University of New Hampshire is located, while Hanover is home to Dartmouth College. Given that Nevada is a considerably younger state and the bigger college population of South Carolina, those two graphics are quite encouraging.

Another thing is the Oprah Winfrey factor. I believe she made a huge difference in Iowa, and the stats regarding the female vote there seem to reflect that, especially after looking at last night's results. Also, I don't think she ever campaigned in New Hampshire. She definitely visited South Carolina, though, where she will influence Black women. And don't forget about Michelle Obama, the powerhouse who could be the key to this election before it is all said and done. I heard one of the CNN analysts say tonight that they believed Black women would decide the Democratic ticket. Not to underestimate the Clintons when it comes to that demographic, but the Obama campaign should have the edge there.

Also, keep in mind that Obama was the clear favorite last night, and that Hillary went on the aggressive and even threw a few desperate hailmary passes. They seemed to connect. Unfortunately for her, she now has to keep up this "real" act for another month. It took her 35 years to find her voice -- she said it, not me -- how long will it take for her to lose it.

Additionally, I think we will see a much more aggressive Barack Obama over the course of the next couple weeks. I look for him to really attack Hillary and maybe even Edwards. Hopefully, he'll keep the blows above the belt and let his blogosphere buddies do the dirty work.

I also think this is a good chance to start talking about the specifics when it comes to the issues and policies. He has to do a little more to win over potential voters. Remember, this is America. Regardless of all this change talk, in the end quite a few people will still play it safe. After all, we did elect George W. Bush to a second term.

Lastly, I'm not so sure John Edwards hurts Obama more than Hillary. I hear the anti-Hillary argument, but, honestly, Edwards might actually help Obama. Let's face it; some people are just not going to vote for a Black candidate. I hate to say that, but it's true. I'm thinking Edwards and Hillary split that vote. Also, when Edwards finished second, Obama finished first. Who's to say that he hurts Obama? If anything it looks like Edwards' poor performance is what hurt Obama.

Tomorrow is a new day, and Obama has finished first and a close second, while Hillary has one slim first-place finish and a third place finish. We have a race on are hands, but one we can win. Yes we can!

(P.S. - Does anybody else wish that Dennis Kucinich would call it quits? He's got to be hurting Obama, and would probably endorse him if he dropped out. I digress...)